What Needs Fixing

Tonight, the Twins kick off their final series of the season, as the battle Kansas City at Target Field. And as the season comes to its end, we now get to look forward to the 2012 Twins, and how different that team should be looking. And here today, I am going to offer up my advice as to what positions of this team actually need to be fixed for the Twins to have success in 2012 (No, my answer will not be the whole team).

Starting Pitching

Quite frankly, this is what needs to have the top priority this offseason. Because in this league, you get places with good starting pitching. Lately, the Twins have had a good offense. One of the best in baseball. But, good offenses only get you so far. Really, since the departure of Johan Santana, the Twins have filled a rotation of 5 starters with pitchers who are no better than a second or third starter. And as good as that sounds, its not. The pitchers they have are contact pitchers, and only one has the capability to become staff ace (Baker). There is only one starter on the free agent market this offseason, that could be deemed an ace on most teams, CJ Wilson from Texas. But the likeliness of him leaving Texas is not good. So hopefully, look for the team to trade for some fresh starting pitching.

Relief Pitching

Going into 2011, we knew the bullpen was going to be bad. And it lived up to that statement. No one besides Glen Perkins was consistently good out of the bullpen this year. Matt Capps proved to be an awful disappointment and was eventually stripped of the closers role. Joe Nathan had early struggles, but did much better following a DL stint mid-season, but he saw limited time at the end of the year because the Twins simply did not have many save opportunities for him. This year the 6th and 7th inning roles were filled with players such as Alex Burnett, Jim Hoey, Dusty Hughes, Jose Mijares, and Lester Olliveros. And none of them can say they have ERAs under 4. In fact, Perkins and Phil Dumatrait were the only pitchers in the 'pen to have ERAs under 4. So look for the Twins to maybe hit the free agent market for a reliever or two to help bridge the gap to the ninth inning.

Shortstop

If the Twins hadn't traded a certain shortstop to Baltimore last offseason, we would be talking about this as the most solid position on the team. But, they did, and we were left with a bunch of players playing the 6 hole for the Twins in 2011. And no, this is by no means a shot at Tsuyoshi Nishioka. I beileve he will have a better year next season...at second base! Hopefully the Twins can go out and acquire a solid SS to fill the spot. I thought Trevor Plouffe could of been that guy to fill the spot, but his vastly inconsistent play has left me frustrated more times than none. Its a tough position to fill, with few players who can actually play it well. So it will be interesting to see who is the Twins starting shortstop on opening day in 2012.

If the Twins can adequately fix these problems in 2012, and keep their players healthy, they should have a good bounceback year and be a force in the AL Central again.

Second Half Improvements

Tonight, the Twins open up their second half of the 2011 season. They stand with a 41-48 record (this after a 17-37 start) and sit just 6.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers. The Twins also have a huge advantage by playing the first 12 games of the second half at Target Field, and against divisional foes. You may recall in my previous post, I mentioned the time for the Twins is now.

Despite the recent success of the Twins, there are still several weak points in this team moving forward. Most of these holes will be filled once players start returning from the disabled list. Key players like Denard Span, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel still sit on the DL (Although, sounds like Span could be back at the end of this homestand).

But if the Twins wish to remain in contention, they need to fix their bullpen. Right now, the Twins bullpen consists of Alex Burnett (6.75 ERA), Anthony Swarzak (3.38 ERA), Phil Dumatrait (5.71 ERA), Jose Mijares (5.49 ERA), Glen Perkins (1.87 ERA), Joe Nathan (5.82 ERA, 1.42 ERA since return from DL), and Matt Capps (4.42 ERA). And right now, the only ones you can truly trust are Perkins and Nathan.

So the Twins have two options here. Try and fix the bullpen using players in the system, or acquire some solid relievers before the July 31st trade deadline. There aren't many options with the promote from within plan. Chuck James was fairly successful in his brief stint with the Twins in June, but since his return to AAA his command has not been great (4 BB in 5 IP). The Twins could also try Kevin Slowey, Scott Diamond, Eric Hacker, or Kyle Waldrop but none of them have pitched well at AAA, so it doesnt make sense to bring them up (For those wondering Anthony Slama is on the DL right now, but he could be an option when he returns).

So clearly, this will have to be a fix from outside the organization. And in the previous two seasons, Bill Smith has made moves that did benefit the Twins down the stretch (O. Cabrera, Pavano, Rauch-09, Capps-10). So I do have confidence in him to bring in some bullpen help via trades.

The Starting pitching will be fine going forward, and the timely hitting will be fine as well assuming those key players start returning soon. The bullpen is what the Twins need to improve upon heading towards the end of July. Because lets face it, a bullpen featuring Burnett, Dumatrait, and Mijares as middle relief, won't get you very far. So lets hope it gets improved. Because the Twins season could depend on it.

Front Office Failures

I'm not one to blast the front office. Because usually they make good moves to better our team moving forward. But this past offseason, and even during spring training, this front office has pulled off a horrible string of moves that has severely affected, and most likely crippled, the Twins 2011 season.

Go back to November, the team watched Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, and Jon Rauch all hit the free agent market. This was one of the best bullpen's in baseball, and the Twins never were legit contenders for any of these pitchers. Over time they all signed with new teams (Crain-CWS, Guerrier-LAD, Fuentes-OAK, Rauch-TOR), leaving Matt Capps, Joe Nathan (who missed all of 2010 with Tommy John Surgery), and Jose Mijares in the Twins bullpen. It was believed that the Twins payroll was already near its ceiling then, which is why they never got in on any one of those pitchers.

Then flash forward to early December and the Winter Meetings. On the final day, the front office traded SS JJ Hardy and INF Brendan Harris and $500,000 to Baltimore for minor league P's Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. Hardy was an above average shortstop on both sides of the field. But he was due $6 million in 2011, and the Twins felt they'd rather free up some salary room and get rid of him. And this season, all we have seen is a revolving door of players at the shortstop position with no foreseeable end in sight. Jim Hoey has been up and down with the Twins and has shown poor command of his pitches. Brett Jacobson has a 2.93 ERA at AA, but has 22 walks in 27 innings. So a solid shortstop was sacrificed for two pitchers with command problems.

In late December, the Twins signed Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a 3 year/$9 million deal. He was put at second base to start the season, and 7 games in he suffered a broken fibula and is very close to returning to the field. The jury is out on this move still, but I thought I'd acknowledge it as well.

Mid January, the Twins outbid themselves and inked righty starter Carl Pavano to a 2 year/$16.5 million deal. They had been believed to be the front runner the entire offseason for Pavano. The closest offer was Pittsburgh for 2 years/$12-13 million. All other teams that called were only offering one year deals. Why just one or two year deals? Because of his age. Pavano had a career year in 2010 (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 221.0 IP) despite being 34 years old. I understand him wanting a two year deal, and I had no problem with the Twins giving him a two year deal. But the front office felt they were getting nowhere with him, so they upped their offer (essentially outbidding themselves) and got Pavano to resign. A few more dollars that could of been better spent on some effective late inning relief.

Back in the Winter Meetings, the Twins had selected SP Scott Diamond from Atlanta. For those who don't know how the rule 5 draft works, you pick a player and you have to keep them on the MLB roster for the following season. If you want to send them down to AAA you have to offer them back to their original team or work out a trade. Diamond didn't have the greatest spring so the conventional thinking had him going back to the Braves. But instead, the Twins sent minor league lefty Billy Bullock to Atlanta so they could keep Diamond. Bullock projects as someone who can be a good lefty specialist for an MLB team one day. Diamond projects as someone who can be a back end of the rotation starter. And all he has done so far is put in one abysmal season, going 2-4, with a 5.40 ERA in 9 starts for AAA-Rochester. This move has little affect on the 2011 team, but could affect them in the future.

Then toward the end of Spring, one of the pitchers battling for a bullpen spot was placed on waivers. That pitcher was Pat Neshek. He was claimed off waivers by the San Diego Padres. So essentially, the front office gave him away for nothing. Yes, Neshek did have a stint at AAA, but in 11 games with San Diego, he has posted a 1.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .200 opp AVG. I'm almost positive that Neshek would be a better relief option for Ron Gardenhire in the later innings than the likes of Jim Hoey, Phil Dumatrait, or Alex Burnett.

As you can see, this was not a banner offseason for the Twins. Essentially, these moves crippled their bullpen (which was one of the best in baseball, now one of the worst), kept a revolving door on a position (SS) that has been difficult to fill, and acquired a pitcher who realistically has no chance to make this team as a starter anytime soon for a pitcher who could of been coming out of the bullpen for the Twins in 2013.

As I said, I'm not one to throw the front office under the bus. But when moves backfire this much, it needs to be addressed. And frankly going forward, I have zero confidence in Bill Smith if he chooses to be a seller at the trade deadline. Look at his past trades involving prospects that have come to the Twins...its not pretty. So all I can hope for is for this team to magically flip a switch and start playing better and making a charge for another division crown. But we all know that the likelihood of that happening is moving into the 0-10% chance range. This is going to be a long summer....

Twins Post-Bullpen Overworked?

This season we have seen the Twins starting rotation (minus Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano) go through some issues, specifically since june 1st. Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn have been an abomination, and the Twins 6 game lead in the central evaporated and now they sit swapping between second and third. And I would like to raise the question, is our bullpen becoming overworked? My belief...Yes, they are. The lack of innings being thrown by the starters have caught up with them. Of the 95 games played by the Minnesota Twins this year, the starters have pitched through at least 6 innings in 62 of those. But since June 1st, the starters have pitched through the 6th just 28 out of 44 times. If you take away Pavano and Liriano since June 1st, starters have gotten 6 innings in just 13 out of 27 times. To compare, since June 1st, the New York Yankees starting 5 have pitched through 6 31 out of 41 times. And if you don't think these numbers are affecting the bullpen i tend to disagree. Since July 1st Matt Guerrier (1.93 ERA to 2.74), Jose Mijares (2.12 to 3.20), Alex Burnett (3.12 to 4.39), and Jon Rauch (2.61 to 3.31) have all seen their ERA's rise, and in the case of Burnett, it lead to his demotion. The only person out in the bullpen who seems to be thriving right now is Jesse Crain who's ERA has fallen down to 3.52 and has become Ron Gardenhire's most trusted reliever. The 'pen hasn't been so bad to where we need to push the panic button, but if the lack of innings being pitched continue, the Twins could find problems from the bullpen on top of the starters being inconsistent. The Twins did just call up Anthony Slama and they have Kyle Waldrop waiting for his shot, but Rochester's bullpen has been worked almost twice as much as the Twins 'pen has. So if anything these guys could be even better and not have their arms fall off. But fatigue could set in with them anytime now as well. Here is another sign that the front office needs to go after some arms that can pitch deeper into games. If not, third place looks great for the Twins.

Twins Post-Slama Time

After tonights 10-4 beating from Cleveland the Twins selected the contract of RHP Anthony Slama from AAA-Rochester. To make room for Slama, the Twins have sent down RHP Alex Burnett. In his last 10 games, Burnett had an 0-1 record with a 11.74 ERA (10 ER, 16 H) in 7.2 IP. He clearly had warmed out his welcome here. Meanwhile, Slama was selected to this years MLB futures game and the AAA All Star Game. In 43 appearances with Rochester, Slama had a 1.71 ERA in 52.2 IP with 23 walks and 33 strikeouts. He served as their closer and recorded 17 saves. I've been reading up on some scouting reports on Slama and from what I got is: He won't overpower you. He uses his deceptive delivery to keep hitters off balance. His fastball tops off around 91-92 and also carries a changeup and a good slider. This a needed move for the Twins. No, it doesn't solve the three holes in the starting rotation, but it solidifies a pretty good bullpen. My guess is Slama won't be used in hot spots right away but if he performs well he could be a 7th or 8th inning reliever. He is expected to be in uniform for tomorrows game against Cleveland.

NOTES

• Since July 1st Jon Rauch has a 8.44 ERA (5.1 IP, 5 ER) in 6 games played. That also includes 10 hits and 5 walks. Time to sound an alarm?
• Joe Mauer has 17 GIDPs this season. To compare he had 16 all of last year, 21 in 2008, and 24 in 2006.
  
• Denard Span is hitting .344 at Target Field this year compared to just .198 on the road.