A Season Built On Hope

Today, the Twins open up the 52nd season in the history of the franchise. And as the team opens up the season in Baltimore, they have a lot of uncertainty still hovering over the club. And only one can hope that the baseball gods look upon the Twins a bit more kindly in 2012, compared to 2011.

As 2012 opens, we hope that:

• Joe Mauer can play an injury free season for the first time since 2008.
• Justin Morneau and Denard Span can put concussion symptoms behind them and have successful years.
• Morneau plays a game in September.
• Scott Baker can overcome his elbow problems and continue to be the Twins best pitcher
• Francisco Liriano can be the pitcher we saw in 2010.
• Matt Capps pitches the opposite of what he did this spring
• Someone in the bullpen not named Capps, Glen Perkins, or Brian Duensing can step up and be a solid option in the late innings for Ron Gardenhire.
• Josh Willingham can produce similar offensive numbers while playing in spacious Target Field.
• The Twins can win a series against the Yankees (Last one came in August of 2008).
• The Twins use the DL a bit less than the 27 times it was used in 2011.

And lastly, we all hope the Twins defy the odds once more, and capture their their 7th AL Central division crown.

Spring Notes: 3/22

The Twins are moving along through Spring so quickly. Its hard to believe we are just 2 weeks away from Opening Day in Baltimore. So here is some notes/thoughts on spring training so far.

• Justin Morneau is batting .091 this spring. I would like to think he will be ok, but at this point, I'm not sure what to think.
• Scott Baker had some elbow tendinitis this past week, but for the time being appears to be fine. I hope the Twins deal with this right, Baker is too valuable to have multiple stints on the DL again.
• Tsuyoshi Nishioka was sent down to the minors earlier in the week. This was something that should of been done last July!
• Francisco Liriano has had a nice spring. If he can translate that success to the regular season, it can make this team so much better.
• Brian Duensing has done well as a reliever so far in March, and he should have no trouble having similar success once the season starts. He will be very valuable to the team as a late inning reliever.
• I do not like the idea of a platoon between Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe in left field. I believe the left field job should be for Revere. Ben and Denard Span could cover a lot of ground in left and center field defensively, especially in the spacious outfield of Target Field. Revere did struggle towards the end of last year at the plate, but don't forget he is young and his best years are ahead of him.
• Jamey Carroll was brought over to help the Twins defensively by filling the void at shortstop. If he hits during the year like he has in the spring (.156), he better be bringing Gold Glove caliber defense to makeup for that lack of offense.

Spring Training Notes-3/8

• What came as a surprise to most, Justin Morneau suited up for the Twins 'B' Game today vs Pittsburgh. Just last week Morneau had not been cleared for game activity, but it seemed that it came to the point where the only move left was to play and see how it goes. Morneau played first and hit cleanup. He had two at bats, going 1-2, with a bases clearing double in the third and eventually scored a run. After the game he said he felt fine, and hopefully it feels fine in a few hours. This was great news for Twins Territory. But lets be real, he is not past this yet. He could have some lingering symptoms tonight and tomorrow which would signal a stop sign on his recovery. But if all goes well, he could be seen in a game on Thursday at the earliest. I will keep my fingers crossed for the next two days.
  
• Also in the 'B' game, Delmon Young made his Spring debut getting a pair of walks before leaving the game. Young had missed time this spring with turf toe injury. But it appears he should also have this behind him and should be good to go for the remainder of spring. Young, to me, is crucial to the success of the 2011 Twins since they front office failed to acquire a right handed bat with some pop this past offseason. Last year Young batted .298 with 21 HR and 112 RBI (All career highs).
  
• In the past week manager Ron Gardenhire noted that Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn will begin the season in the starting rotation. They join Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano with assured spots in the starting 5. The announcment leaves Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey battling for the final starters spot. Personally, I would rather see it go to Slowey, but my gut feeling says it will be Baker. Slowey is under team control for 2011-2013 and is arbitration eligible following the 2011 and 2012 seasons. Meanwhile Scott Baker is owed $5M and $6.5M over the next two seasons and has a $9.25M team option for 2013. Slowey's contractual status makes him a much easier move. And as Joe Christiensen tweeted today, many scouts were there to watch Slowey. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
• Some players who have impressed me so far this spring is Danny Valencia, Ben Revere, and Luke Hughes. Hughes is a player who I would rather see make the opening day roster over Matt Tolbert (I'll have a post on this later on this week). Despite what everyone says about Valencia having a down year compared to a year ago, I have a gut feeling that he will have another good year at the hot corner. And Ben Revere probably won't make the opening day roster, but an injury to one of the outfielders could open the door for him as he looks to squeeze his way on to the MLB roster.
• And for those who don't know, today was the release of MLB 11: The Show for Playstation. Joe Mauer once again graced the cover for the second year in a row. Here is a trailer for the game.
  
  
  

Pavano Returns; Surplus of Starters

Yesterday, the Twins re-signed RHP Carl Pavano to a 2 year deal worth $16.5 million. The deal also includes incentives worth up to $500,000, based on innings pitched. Pavano had originally looked for a three year deal at the beginning of the free agent period, but no one seemingly wanted to go that high. The Twins were always the front runner and finally, after much speculation, signed Pavano. Pavano was a horse in 2010 for the Twins going 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA, while pitching in a team high 221 innings.

Now that Pavano has returned, the Twins starting rotation now consists of Francisco Liriano, Pavano, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn. And for those counting, that is six starters when a typical rotation consists of five. So now the Twins have a surplus of starters and they still have a few holes in their roster. The solution I would like to offer is simple: Trade one. But the question is, which one do you part with?

Given how well Liriano pitched last year, he will stay. Brian Duensing was pretty valuable after he went into the rotation, so he will stay too. And Nick Blackburn was locked into a long term deal last offseason, so I wouldn't think anyone would want to take on his contract. So that leaves Baker and Slowey as the two viable trade candidates.

There are a few turnoffs when looking at trading for Scott Baker. Only once in his four big league seasons has he turned in a sub 4 ERA. He has been very inconsistent during his time in the big leagues. Although each of the past three seasons he has pitched at least 170 innings. So he can be a valuable innings eater. But the big turnoff is his remaining contract for 2011 through 2013. His salary will be $5 million in 2011, $6.5 million in 2012, and 2013 there is a $9.25 million team option. So clearly if trying to trade Scott Baker, the team needs to have payroll flexibility. And by this point in the offseason, many teams have spent their money already. So the options are limited for trading Baker.

Kevin Slowey doesn't have Scott Baker's big contract. So there is a big plus for trying to trade him. Slowey was one of three Twins to file arbitration numbers on Tuesday. So he will make somewhere between $2-$3 million in 2011. Slowey is known as a control artist. So when he is on, he can really paint the corners. But in 2009, he had wrist surgery on his pitching hand. So in 2010 we saw him try and come back from that. He too was like Baker, very inconsistent. But that can be blamed on the wrist injury. He has played three full big league seasons and he has yet to go beyond 160 innings in a season. But again, that is due to the wrist. But because of his lower salary, the Twins should have better options moving him.

So despite the wrist injury, Slowey is the more valuable pitcher to trade here. I'd rather trade Baker and give Slowey the shot. But Baker's contract really handcuffs the options of where he could go. Some people could say that we should hold on to the six starters and just have one start at AAA and go from there. But with Kyle Gibson making his rapid ascent to AAA last year, I would like to see him get a call up in 2011 if needed. The Twins really need bullpen help. That's why they need to trade one of these starters, so they can at least get one solid reliever in return. Maybe acquire a middle infielder prospect too since the depth there took a hit this offseason. So hopefully the right move can be made with this surplus of starters. Because the Twins really need a move here...