Tonight, the Twins open up their second half of the 2011 season. They stand with a 41-48 record (this after a 17-37 start) and sit just 6.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers. The Twins also have a huge advantage by playing the first 12 games of the second half at Target Field, and against divisional foes. You may recall in my previous post, I mentioned the time for the Twins is now.
Despite the recent success of the Twins, there are still several weak points in this team moving forward. Most of these holes will be filled once players start returning from the disabled list. Key players like Denard Span, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel still sit on the DL (Although, sounds like Span could be back at the end of this homestand).
But if the Twins wish to remain in contention, they need to fix their bullpen. Right now, the Twins bullpen consists of Alex Burnett (6.75 ERA), Anthony Swarzak (3.38 ERA), Phil Dumatrait (5.71 ERA), Jose Mijares (5.49 ERA), Glen Perkins (1.87 ERA), Joe Nathan (5.82 ERA, 1.42 ERA since return from DL), and Matt Capps (4.42 ERA). And right now, the only ones you can truly trust are Perkins and Nathan.
So the Twins have two options here. Try and fix the bullpen using players in the system, or acquire some solid relievers before the July 31st trade deadline. There aren't many options with the promote from within plan. Chuck James was fairly successful in his brief stint with the Twins in June, but since his return to AAA his command has not been great (4 BB in 5 IP). The Twins could also try Kevin Slowey, Scott Diamond, Eric Hacker, or Kyle Waldrop but none of them have pitched well at AAA, so it doesnt make sense to bring them up (For those wondering Anthony Slama is on the DL right now, but he could be an option when he returns).
So clearly, this will have to be a fix from outside the organization. And in the previous two seasons, Bill Smith has made moves that did benefit the Twins down the stretch (O. Cabrera, Pavano, Rauch-09, Capps-10). So I do have confidence in him to bring in some bullpen help via trades.
The Starting pitching will be fine going forward, and the timely hitting will be fine as well assuming those key players start returning soon. The bullpen is what the Twins need to improve upon heading towards the end of July. Because lets face it, a bullpen featuring Burnett, Dumatrait, and Mijares as middle relief, won't get you very far. So lets hope it gets improved. Because the Twins season could depend on it.
Showing posts with label Phil Dumatrait. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phil Dumatrait. Show all posts
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Monday, June 27, 2011
The Jose Mijares Problem
In Friday's 7th inning, Scott Baker had a ground out, back to back singles, then a pop out from Ryan Braun advancing the runner on second to third. So with two outs, Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire went to his lefty specialist Jose Mijares to get out the hot hitting lefty Prince Fielder. Mijares came in, threw three straight fastballs outside the zone. He came back with strike one down the middle, then strike two that clipped the outside corner. Catcher Joe Mauer called for the same exact pitch as strike two. Mijares instead threw a pitch that was more similar to strike one, and Fielder hammered the pitch down the right field line for a 2 RBI double.
Following the game, Mijares complained through the media about Joe Mauer's lack of calling a breaking pitch when all Mijares threw were fastballs. He also said that his he felt better about throwing his slider, because it was good while he warmed up in the bullpen.
That game, has symbolized Mijares' season thus far. In his third full season with the Twins, Mijares has seen his stats go up in the wrong way. His ERA (4.08) is the highest its ever been. His runs (12) and earned runs (8) are on pace to set career highs for most allowed in a year. But the worst stat Mijares has is his walks allowed and WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched). In just 17.2 innings pitched, Mijares has walked 14 hitters, and his WHIP sits at 1.811 (Before 2011, Mijares never had a WHIP higher than 1.31). His number of hits allowed (18), are at his normal rate. But the most astounding stat that Jose Mijares has this season is his walks per 9 innings pitched (BB/9). In his first two full seasons Mijares' BB/9 were 3.4 and 2.5. This season, it is a ridiculous 7.1. Walks have greatly plagued Jose Mijares.
A big reason for his high walks rate, is the fact he is constantly falling behind in the count to the hitters. In 65 at bats against Mijares, opposing hitters have gotten ahead at least 1-0 in the count 35 times and 18 of those 35, Mijares has fallen behind 2-0. At some point, you would think he would start getting ahead in the count more often.
So perhaps, after Friday's game, Mijares let his frustration from his whole season get to him. However, I don't agree with what he did. If you disagree with your catcher, you have the option of shaking him off and call him up to the mound to talk about it. And certainly you don't call him out in the media when you haven't talked to him yet.
Lastly, I don't think Mijares gets that his time up here isn't set in stone. Glen Perkins has been the go to lefty out of Gardy's bullpen this year. Phil Dumatrait has been a pleasant surprise since coming up from AAA, and Chuck James fared well in his brief stint with the team too. I do believe Mijares has an option left (correct me if I'm wrong here), so if the Twins felt he needed some time at AAA, they could certainly give it to him.
I'm not saying they should send Mijares down right this minute. I'm saying that if his struggles continue like they have been, they should consider it considering the options they have. Because when you have a lefty specialist who comes in to face one batter, and that one batter gets on more times than none, its time they begin to look at another option. Because with the way the Twins offense has produced lately, you need your pitchers getting outs rather giving up runs. And Jose Mijares has been problematic with that this season...
Following the game, Mijares complained through the media about Joe Mauer's lack of calling a breaking pitch when all Mijares threw were fastballs. He also said that his he felt better about throwing his slider, because it was good while he warmed up in the bullpen.
That game, has symbolized Mijares' season thus far. In his third full season with the Twins, Mijares has seen his stats go up in the wrong way. His ERA (4.08) is the highest its ever been. His runs (12) and earned runs (8) are on pace to set career highs for most allowed in a year. But the worst stat Mijares has is his walks allowed and WHIP (Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched). In just 17.2 innings pitched, Mijares has walked 14 hitters, and his WHIP sits at 1.811 (Before 2011, Mijares never had a WHIP higher than 1.31). His number of hits allowed (18), are at his normal rate. But the most astounding stat that Jose Mijares has this season is his walks per 9 innings pitched (BB/9). In his first two full seasons Mijares' BB/9 were 3.4 and 2.5. This season, it is a ridiculous 7.1. Walks have greatly plagued Jose Mijares.
A big reason for his high walks rate, is the fact he is constantly falling behind in the count to the hitters. In 65 at bats against Mijares, opposing hitters have gotten ahead at least 1-0 in the count 35 times and 18 of those 35, Mijares has fallen behind 2-0. At some point, you would think he would start getting ahead in the count more often.
So perhaps, after Friday's game, Mijares let his frustration from his whole season get to him. However, I don't agree with what he did. If you disagree with your catcher, you have the option of shaking him off and call him up to the mound to talk about it. And certainly you don't call him out in the media when you haven't talked to him yet.
Lastly, I don't think Mijares gets that his time up here isn't set in stone. Glen Perkins has been the go to lefty out of Gardy's bullpen this year. Phil Dumatrait has been a pleasant surprise since coming up from AAA, and Chuck James fared well in his brief stint with the team too. I do believe Mijares has an option left (correct me if I'm wrong here), so if the Twins felt he needed some time at AAA, they could certainly give it to him.
I'm not saying they should send Mijares down right this minute. I'm saying that if his struggles continue like they have been, they should consider it considering the options they have. Because when you have a lefty specialist who comes in to face one batter, and that one batter gets on more times than none, its time they begin to look at another option. Because with the way the Twins offense has produced lately, you need your pitchers getting outs rather giving up runs. And Jose Mijares has been problematic with that this season...
Sunday, May 29, 2011
Front Office Failures
I'm not one to blast the front office. Because usually they make good moves to better our team moving forward. But this past offseason, and even during spring training, this front office has pulled off a horrible string of moves that has severely affected, and most likely crippled, the Twins 2011 season.
Go back to November, the team watched Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, and Jon Rauch all hit the free agent market. This was one of the best bullpen's in baseball, and the Twins never were legit contenders for any of these pitchers. Over time they all signed with new teams (Crain-CWS, Guerrier-LAD, Fuentes-OAK, Rauch-TOR), leaving Matt Capps, Joe Nathan (who missed all of 2010 with Tommy John Surgery), and Jose Mijares in the Twins bullpen. It was believed that the Twins payroll was already near its ceiling then, which is why they never got in on any one of those pitchers.
Then flash forward to early December and the Winter Meetings. On the final day, the front office traded SS JJ Hardy and INF Brendan Harris and $500,000 to Baltimore for minor league P's Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. Hardy was an above average shortstop on both sides of the field. But he was due $6 million in 2011, and the Twins felt they'd rather free up some salary room and get rid of him. And this season, all we have seen is a revolving door of players at the shortstop position with no foreseeable end in sight. Jim Hoey has been up and down with the Twins and has shown poor command of his pitches. Brett Jacobson has a 2.93 ERA at AA, but has 22 walks in 27 innings. So a solid shortstop was sacrificed for two pitchers with command problems.
In late December, the Twins signed Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a 3 year/$9 million deal. He was put at second base to start the season, and 7 games in he suffered a broken fibula and is very close to returning to the field. The jury is out on this move still, but I thought I'd acknowledge it as well.
Mid January, the Twins outbid themselves and inked righty starter Carl Pavano to a 2 year/$16.5 million deal. They had been believed to be the front runner the entire offseason for Pavano. The closest offer was Pittsburgh for 2 years/$12-13 million. All other teams that called were only offering one year deals. Why just one or two year deals? Because of his age. Pavano had a career year in 2010 (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 221.0 IP) despite being 34 years old. I understand him wanting a two year deal, and I had no problem with the Twins giving him a two year deal. But the front office felt they were getting nowhere with him, so they upped their offer (essentially outbidding themselves) and got Pavano to resign. A few more dollars that could of been better spent on some effective late inning relief.
Back in the Winter Meetings, the Twins had selected SP Scott Diamond from Atlanta. For those who don't know how the rule 5 draft works, you pick a player and you have to keep them on the MLB roster for the following season. If you want to send them down to AAA you have to offer them back to their original team or work out a trade. Diamond didn't have the greatest spring so the conventional thinking had him going back to the Braves. But instead, the Twins sent minor league lefty Billy Bullock to Atlanta so they could keep Diamond. Bullock projects as someone who can be a good lefty specialist for an MLB team one day. Diamond projects as someone who can be a back end of the rotation starter. And all he has done so far is put in one abysmal season, going 2-4, with a 5.40 ERA in 9 starts for AAA-Rochester. This move has little affect on the 2011 team, but could affect them in the future.
Then toward the end of Spring, one of the pitchers battling for a bullpen spot was placed on waivers. That pitcher was Pat Neshek. He was claimed off waivers by the San Diego Padres. So essentially, the front office gave him away for nothing. Yes, Neshek did have a stint at AAA, but in 11 games with San Diego, he has posted a 1.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .200 opp AVG. I'm almost positive that Neshek would be a better relief option for Ron Gardenhire in the later innings than the likes of Jim Hoey, Phil Dumatrait, or Alex Burnett.
As you can see, this was not a banner offseason for the Twins. Essentially, these moves crippled their bullpen (which was one of the best in baseball, now one of the worst), kept a revolving door on a position (SS) that has been difficult to fill, and acquired a pitcher who realistically has no chance to make this team as a starter anytime soon for a pitcher who could of been coming out of the bullpen for the Twins in 2013.
As I said, I'm not one to throw the front office under the bus. But when moves backfire this much, it needs to be addressed. And frankly going forward, I have zero confidence in Bill Smith if he chooses to be a seller at the trade deadline. Look at his past trades involving prospects that have come to the Twins...its not pretty. So all I can hope for is for this team to magically flip a switch and start playing better and making a charge for another division crown. But we all know that the likelihood of that happening is moving into the 0-10% chance range. This is going to be a long summer....
Go back to November, the team watched Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, and Jon Rauch all hit the free agent market. This was one of the best bullpen's in baseball, and the Twins never were legit contenders for any of these pitchers. Over time they all signed with new teams (Crain-CWS, Guerrier-LAD, Fuentes-OAK, Rauch-TOR), leaving Matt Capps, Joe Nathan (who missed all of 2010 with Tommy John Surgery), and Jose Mijares in the Twins bullpen. It was believed that the Twins payroll was already near its ceiling then, which is why they never got in on any one of those pitchers.
Then flash forward to early December and the Winter Meetings. On the final day, the front office traded SS JJ Hardy and INF Brendan Harris and $500,000 to Baltimore for minor league P's Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. Hardy was an above average shortstop on both sides of the field. But he was due $6 million in 2011, and the Twins felt they'd rather free up some salary room and get rid of him. And this season, all we have seen is a revolving door of players at the shortstop position with no foreseeable end in sight. Jim Hoey has been up and down with the Twins and has shown poor command of his pitches. Brett Jacobson has a 2.93 ERA at AA, but has 22 walks in 27 innings. So a solid shortstop was sacrificed for two pitchers with command problems.
In late December, the Twins signed Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a 3 year/$9 million deal. He was put at second base to start the season, and 7 games in he suffered a broken fibula and is very close to returning to the field. The jury is out on this move still, but I thought I'd acknowledge it as well.
Mid January, the Twins outbid themselves and inked righty starter Carl Pavano to a 2 year/$16.5 million deal. They had been believed to be the front runner the entire offseason for Pavano. The closest offer was Pittsburgh for 2 years/$12-13 million. All other teams that called were only offering one year deals. Why just one or two year deals? Because of his age. Pavano had a career year in 2010 (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 221.0 IP) despite being 34 years old. I understand him wanting a two year deal, and I had no problem with the Twins giving him a two year deal. But the front office felt they were getting nowhere with him, so they upped their offer (essentially outbidding themselves) and got Pavano to resign. A few more dollars that could of been better spent on some effective late inning relief.
Back in the Winter Meetings, the Twins had selected SP Scott Diamond from Atlanta. For those who don't know how the rule 5 draft works, you pick a player and you have to keep them on the MLB roster for the following season. If you want to send them down to AAA you have to offer them back to their original team or work out a trade. Diamond didn't have the greatest spring so the conventional thinking had him going back to the Braves. But instead, the Twins sent minor league lefty Billy Bullock to Atlanta so they could keep Diamond. Bullock projects as someone who can be a good lefty specialist for an MLB team one day. Diamond projects as someone who can be a back end of the rotation starter. And all he has done so far is put in one abysmal season, going 2-4, with a 5.40 ERA in 9 starts for AAA-Rochester. This move has little affect on the 2011 team, but could affect them in the future.
Then toward the end of Spring, one of the pitchers battling for a bullpen spot was placed on waivers. That pitcher was Pat Neshek. He was claimed off waivers by the San Diego Padres. So essentially, the front office gave him away for nothing. Yes, Neshek did have a stint at AAA, but in 11 games with San Diego, he has posted a 1.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .200 opp AVG. I'm almost positive that Neshek would be a better relief option for Ron Gardenhire in the later innings than the likes of Jim Hoey, Phil Dumatrait, or Alex Burnett.
As you can see, this was not a banner offseason for the Twins. Essentially, these moves crippled their bullpen (which was one of the best in baseball, now one of the worst), kept a revolving door on a position (SS) that has been difficult to fill, and acquired a pitcher who realistically has no chance to make this team as a starter anytime soon for a pitcher who could of been coming out of the bullpen for the Twins in 2013.
As I said, I'm not one to throw the front office under the bus. But when moves backfire this much, it needs to be addressed. And frankly going forward, I have zero confidence in Bill Smith if he chooses to be a seller at the trade deadline. Look at his past trades involving prospects that have come to the Twins...its not pretty. So all I can hope for is for this team to magically flip a switch and start playing better and making a charge for another division crown. But we all know that the likelihood of that happening is moving into the 0-10% chance range. This is going to be a long summer....
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