No Shortage of Options

As I mentioned Monday, Terry Ryan has a very impressive track record of making good trades. And with a roster that has has many holes and limited money to spend on free agents, it would seem that Ryan will be back at the trading table this winter. But, who exactly does he have that he can trade for some positive returns? Here are some options:

• Scott Baker-In 2011, Baker was the Twins best starter. Problem was, he had a few stints on the DL. In just 21 starts, Baker carried a 8-6 record with a 3.14 ERA and had a impressive 8.2 strikeout per 9 innings rate. He is under contract in 2012 making $6.5 million and has a $9.25 million team option for 2013. A team looking for a solid #2 starter at a good price would be willing to give the Twins a good return for Scott Baker.
  

• Francisco Liriano-Had the Twins traded Liriano last winter, they would of gotten a much better return than if they decide to move him this offseason. Liriano battled injuries in 2011, and saw his numbers pay the price for it as he had a 9-10 record with a 5.09 ERA. He also saw his strikeout per 9 innings rate drop from 9.4 (2010) to 7.5 (2011). He also carried an incredibly high 5.0 walks per 9 innings rate. Despite all the sour numbers, Liriano still has good potential and certainly someone would be willing to take a chance on him. He is in his last year of arbitration, so he will be a free agent in 2013.
  

• Carl Pavano-The last two seasons, the righty has thrown at least 220 innings for the team, while posting a combined 4.02 ERA in those seasons. There are a lot of teams that could use a veteran pitcher that can eat up innings like Pavano does. Only problem is that he is due $8.5 million in 2012, and that could scare teams away from giving the Twins a good return on him, so they might have to eat some money to get a better return package.

• Glen Perkins-Its a bit of a stretch to think that the Twins will trade Perkins, but he could get a nice return if they did decide to move him. In 2011, Perkins appeared in 65 games while posting a 2.48 ERA with 65 strikeouts. His fastball frequently found its way into the high 90s and a very effective changeup to go with it. Perkins is under team control for 2012 and 2013 and will only be making somewhere around $1.7 million for 2012.
  

• Denard Span-For a while in July, it looked as if Span was going to be traded. But the deadline came and passed and Span remained a member of the Twins. He battled a concussion in 2011 and was limited to just 70 games, while Ben Revere handled the leadoff and centerfield duties. Span carries a .285 career average with a .361 on base percentage. He also plays a very good defensive centerfield. Span has a very team friendly contract ($3M in '12, $4.75M in '13, $6.5M in '14, and a $9 million team option for 2015), so teams would have to make a seriously good offer for Ryan to consider moving his centerfielder.
  

• Danny Valencia-After a great 2010, Valencia saw his numbers drop in his first full season in the majors in 2011. He only hit .246, but was among the team leaders in home runs (15) and RBI (72). Defensively, he was a mess (.949 fielding percentage, 18 errors). But the good news is, he is still young with plenty of time to turn it around. And he is still under team control through the 2016 season.

With the big changes that Ryan hinted at making for 2012 and a limited budget to spend on free agents, you would have to assume that he is going to make some trades this offseason. Let's all hope that he can still work that magic, because the 2012 Twins are going to need some.

Second Half Improvements

Tonight, the Twins open up their second half of the 2011 season. They stand with a 41-48 record (this after a 17-37 start) and sit just 6.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers. The Twins also have a huge advantage by playing the first 12 games of the second half at Target Field, and against divisional foes. You may recall in my previous post, I mentioned the time for the Twins is now.

Despite the recent success of the Twins, there are still several weak points in this team moving forward. Most of these holes will be filled once players start returning from the disabled list. Key players like Denard Span, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel still sit on the DL (Although, sounds like Span could be back at the end of this homestand).

But if the Twins wish to remain in contention, they need to fix their bullpen. Right now, the Twins bullpen consists of Alex Burnett (6.75 ERA), Anthony Swarzak (3.38 ERA), Phil Dumatrait (5.71 ERA), Jose Mijares (5.49 ERA), Glen Perkins (1.87 ERA), Joe Nathan (5.82 ERA, 1.42 ERA since return from DL), and Matt Capps (4.42 ERA). And right now, the only ones you can truly trust are Perkins and Nathan.

So the Twins have two options here. Try and fix the bullpen using players in the system, or acquire some solid relievers before the July 31st trade deadline. There aren't many options with the promote from within plan. Chuck James was fairly successful in his brief stint with the Twins in June, but since his return to AAA his command has not been great (4 BB in 5 IP). The Twins could also try Kevin Slowey, Scott Diamond, Eric Hacker, or Kyle Waldrop but none of them have pitched well at AAA, so it doesnt make sense to bring them up (For those wondering Anthony Slama is on the DL right now, but he could be an option when he returns).

So clearly, this will have to be a fix from outside the organization. And in the previous two seasons, Bill Smith has made moves that did benefit the Twins down the stretch (O. Cabrera, Pavano, Rauch-09, Capps-10). So I do have confidence in him to bring in some bullpen help via trades.

The Starting pitching will be fine going forward, and the timely hitting will be fine as well assuming those key players start returning soon. The bullpen is what the Twins need to improve upon heading towards the end of July. Because lets face it, a bullpen featuring Burnett, Dumatrait, and Mijares as middle relief, won't get you very far. So lets hope it gets improved. Because the Twins season could depend on it.

A Few Good Notes-Twins/Brewers

Tonight the Twins are in Milwaukee to kick off the home and home series with the Brew Crew. Here are a few notes heading into this series.

• The Twins three starters in this series (Scott Baker, Francisco Liriano, and Carl Pavano) are a combined 6-1 with a 1.58 ERA with 56 strikeouts in 68 innings pitched, in each of their past three starts. The Twins will need these guys to continue their hot pitching for the team to have a chance to win the series.
  
• The Brewers are a considerably better team at home than compared to being on the road. At Miller Park, the Brew Crew have a better team batting average (.279 at home/.231 on the road), better team OPS (.821/658) and have hit 50 home runs in 37 home games. As before said, the key for the Twins is their starting pitching. If the ball starts carrying out for Milwaukee, its gonna be a long series.
  
• Delmon Young has been a hot hitter as of late, hitting .342 (13/38) with 5 RBI and 4 runs scored in his last 10 games. His season average has risen from the .200s all the way up to .254 due to his .321 average in June. And what better team to be playing then the Brewers for Delmon, who carries a career .364/.379/.491 line against them. Look for Delmon to continue his hot hitting this weekend.
• The Twins got lucky this weekend, and won't be facing the Brewers two best pitchers right now, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. The Twins do face Yovani Gallardo on Saturday, but he has struggled in his past three games going 0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in just 14 innings pitched. In his career against the Twins, Gallardo has a 1-0 record with a 2.40 ERA in just two starts.
  
• Former Twin Carlos Gomez, who was acquired in the Johan Santana trade, is struggling mightily lately (Only hitting .077 in past 10 games) and has watched his average drop to .210 on the season, and now has lost his starting CF job to Nyjer Morgan. I think its a safe bet, Gomez will be primarily used as a 4th outfielder for the remainder of his career.
  

Again, this is another crucial series for the Twins. I would like to see them win 2 out of 3 here, but I think the Brewers are too much of the better team when playing at home, so the more likely outcome will be 1 out of 3. The offense has been absolutely stale since their 8 run first inning on Tuesday against San Francisco, only posting three runs in the following 26 innings. With that said, again its imperative that the Twins pitchers hold the Brewers to three runs or less, or else winning will be hard to come by.

Front Office Failures

I'm not one to blast the front office. Because usually they make good moves to better our team moving forward. But this past offseason, and even during spring training, this front office has pulled off a horrible string of moves that has severely affected, and most likely crippled, the Twins 2011 season.

Go back to November, the team watched Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes, and Jon Rauch all hit the free agent market. This was one of the best bullpen's in baseball, and the Twins never were legit contenders for any of these pitchers. Over time they all signed with new teams (Crain-CWS, Guerrier-LAD, Fuentes-OAK, Rauch-TOR), leaving Matt Capps, Joe Nathan (who missed all of 2010 with Tommy John Surgery), and Jose Mijares in the Twins bullpen. It was believed that the Twins payroll was already near its ceiling then, which is why they never got in on any one of those pitchers.

Then flash forward to early December and the Winter Meetings. On the final day, the front office traded SS JJ Hardy and INF Brendan Harris and $500,000 to Baltimore for minor league P's Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. Hardy was an above average shortstop on both sides of the field. But he was due $6 million in 2011, and the Twins felt they'd rather free up some salary room and get rid of him. And this season, all we have seen is a revolving door of players at the shortstop position with no foreseeable end in sight. Jim Hoey has been up and down with the Twins and has shown poor command of his pitches. Brett Jacobson has a 2.93 ERA at AA, but has 22 walks in 27 innings. So a solid shortstop was sacrificed for two pitchers with command problems.

In late December, the Twins signed Japanese middle infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a 3 year/$9 million deal. He was put at second base to start the season, and 7 games in he suffered a broken fibula and is very close to returning to the field. The jury is out on this move still, but I thought I'd acknowledge it as well.

Mid January, the Twins outbid themselves and inked righty starter Carl Pavano to a 2 year/$16.5 million deal. They had been believed to be the front runner the entire offseason for Pavano. The closest offer was Pittsburgh for 2 years/$12-13 million. All other teams that called were only offering one year deals. Why just one or two year deals? Because of his age. Pavano had a career year in 2010 (17-11, 3.75 ERA, 221.0 IP) despite being 34 years old. I understand him wanting a two year deal, and I had no problem with the Twins giving him a two year deal. But the front office felt they were getting nowhere with him, so they upped their offer (essentially outbidding themselves) and got Pavano to resign. A few more dollars that could of been better spent on some effective late inning relief.

Back in the Winter Meetings, the Twins had selected SP Scott Diamond from Atlanta. For those who don't know how the rule 5 draft works, you pick a player and you have to keep them on the MLB roster for the following season. If you want to send them down to AAA you have to offer them back to their original team or work out a trade. Diamond didn't have the greatest spring so the conventional thinking had him going back to the Braves. But instead, the Twins sent minor league lefty Billy Bullock to Atlanta so they could keep Diamond. Bullock projects as someone who can be a good lefty specialist for an MLB team one day. Diamond projects as someone who can be a back end of the rotation starter. And all he has done so far is put in one abysmal season, going 2-4, with a 5.40 ERA in 9 starts for AAA-Rochester. This move has little affect on the 2011 team, but could affect them in the future.

Then toward the end of Spring, one of the pitchers battling for a bullpen spot was placed on waivers. That pitcher was Pat Neshek. He was claimed off waivers by the San Diego Padres. So essentially, the front office gave him away for nothing. Yes, Neshek did have a stint at AAA, but in 11 games with San Diego, he has posted a 1.54 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .200 opp AVG. I'm almost positive that Neshek would be a better relief option for Ron Gardenhire in the later innings than the likes of Jim Hoey, Phil Dumatrait, or Alex Burnett.

As you can see, this was not a banner offseason for the Twins. Essentially, these moves crippled their bullpen (which was one of the best in baseball, now one of the worst), kept a revolving door on a position (SS) that has been difficult to fill, and acquired a pitcher who realistically has no chance to make this team as a starter anytime soon for a pitcher who could of been coming out of the bullpen for the Twins in 2013.

As I said, I'm not one to throw the front office under the bus. But when moves backfire this much, it needs to be addressed. And frankly going forward, I have zero confidence in Bill Smith if he chooses to be a seller at the trade deadline. Look at his past trades involving prospects that have come to the Twins...its not pretty. So all I can hope for is for this team to magically flip a switch and start playing better and making a charge for another division crown. But we all know that the likelihood of that happening is moving into the 0-10% chance range. This is going to be a long summer....

Dark Times, Dark Moves, What Will Bill Smith Do?

Somewhere right now, Bill Smith has to be thinking of ways to make his team better. And I'm sure most of those ways involve players coming off the disabled list and staying healthy. Maybe he is working the phones trying to work out a trade. Who knows? But somewhere, he also has to be thinking about what to do in case his team can't turn that corner and continues to be the AL Central cellar dwellers.

The plan I am about to propose is very similar to the one that Emperor Palpatine carried out in Star Wars III called "order 66". It was a dark, horrible plan (I know, I'm a nerd). It rid his Empire of all unwanted people (In his case, the Jedi). Now take Bill Smith and his team. If they can't get it together, its time he considered a same plan. It would rid his team of unwanted players and/or contracts while bringing in players to help the team in 2012 and beyond.

So lets elaborate on this plan a bit. There will be untouchable players, tradeable players who should bring in good prospects, players who are so bad you can't trade them (so waivers or minor leagues are in their future), and the in-between players (meaning you don't know what to do with them). Then of course, you have some players in the minor leagues who will be ready to get a shot at the big club too, so they will factor in to these decisions as well. So lets dive in to this one:

The Untouchable Players

Joe Mauer C: Face of the Franchise. $23 mil/yr makes him untouchable
Justin Morneau 1B: Despite bad stats, still is a franchise cornerstone
Denard Span CF: Solid leadoff hitter. Good speed. Plays well in CF
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 2B/SS: Twins have a lot invested in him.
Joe Nathan RP: Still recovering from TJ surgery. Don't bail on him yet.

The Tradeable Players

Jason Kubel OF/DH: Very good hitter with good power. Could bring nice return.
Matt Capps RP: If given a 9th inning lead. He gets the job done.
Michael Cuddyer RF/INF: Twins might have to eat some money to move him.
Scott Baker SP: Pitching great this year. Trade him while value is high and contract is low.
Francisco Liriano SP: When healthy, he is nasty. Twins don't seem committed to him.
Jim Thome DH: Could be a nice bat off the bench for a contending team.
Kevin Slowey SP: Under team control through 2014. Great command pitcher.
Carl Pavano SP: Innings eater. Twins might have to eat money if they wish to move him.

In-Between Players

Danny Valencia 3B: Not hitting as well in 2011. Should pan out well.
Delmon Young OF: Lets see what he does when he returns from the DL
Brian Duensing SP: Has hit or miss starts. Needs more consistency.
Nick Blackburn SP: When sinker sinks, he's good. When sinker is flat, he stinks.

The Players You Can't Trade

Alexi Casilla 2B/SS: Don't know where to start with him.
Drew Butera C: Makes Tim Laudner look like a saint
Matt Tolbert 2B/SS: Comparable to Nick Punto, only his defense isn't as good.
Jason Repko OF: Plays a decent OF, but can't hit well

Minor Leaguers For 2012

Kyle Gibson SP: Groundball pitcher with electric stuff.
Trevor Plouffe 2B/SS: Decent hitter. Should get a shot at short
Ben Revere OF: Good average hitter. Great speed. Defense is ok.

Rene Tosoni OF: Could be a decent hitter/4th OF option

The 8 players in the tradeable category contribute $45.9 million to the Twins $110+ million payroll this season. Kubel, Capps, Cuddyer, and Thome are free agents after this season so that does give them a little more trade value. Baker, Slowey, Liriano, and Pavano are under team control through either 2012 or 2013 and they combine for an estimated $24 million on the 2012 payroll (Slowey and Liriano are arbitration eligible and their 2012 salaries were estimated).

So Bill Smith has plenty of options if his team can't get it together in 2011. If he did decide to trade some players, he could fill some holes on this team going into 2012 (middle infield, bullpen, right handed power bat, an ace). I don't want to see that happen. But, I would like to see the Twins have continued success in the future years rather then see them go through some rebuilding years. The Twins like to promote from within, which is why I mentioned some minor leaguers who could be regular starters in 2012. It's how they've operated before and that's how they will operate going forward too.

Again, this is what I believe should happen IF the Twins can't turn it around. This is in no way a concession on my behalf on the Twins season. There is still much baseball left to be played. But we have to be prepared for the worst in case it can't come together.

I pity Bill Smith in these dark times. Because he has some dark decisions to make. Lets hope he makes the right ones...

Opening Day is Here!

Almost 6 months ago, the Twins were bounced once again by the Yankees in the postseason. And at long last, they hit the field to begin their 2011 season. They start the season in Toronto and then go to New York before opening up their home schedule April 8th against Oakland. So here's what you should and should not expect from Opening Day for the beloved Twins.

What You Should Expect-A Lot of Offense. Pitchers are very vulnerable early in the season. And on Opening Day, they are pitching with lots of butterflies and adrenaline. Despite Carl Pavano's great spring stats (2-1, 2.16 ERA, 25 IP), he pitches to contact. And Toronto is a very hitters friendly ballpark. The Jays did end up leading the major leagues in the home run category (257), last season. But the Twins also possess a good lineup and should be firing right back against the young and inexperienced Jays rotation during the Opening Series. So in this series, look for 5-7 runs to go up on the board for both teams.

What You Should NOT Expect-Great Things From Justin Morneau. Despite being cleared to play, one should not expect Morneau to do much during the opening series. He had a short spring, and he looks like he is still trying to get his timing down. But, I could be dead wrong here. Morneau could get very fired up to exercise his demons (He suffered his concussion in Toronto last year), he could tear the cover off the ball. We just don't know yet. But if he has a series where he say gets 1-3 hits in 12-15 at bats, please don't use the "He hasn't fully recovered from his concussion" excuse. He is ready to go. It would just be more of a getting into rhythm type of deal. So keep your expectations low.

Twins Player to Watch: Delmon Young. In his career against the Jays, Young has hit .309, with 6 home runs and 18 RBI with a .494 slugging percentage. And at Rogers Centre he has an even better .322 AVG, with 3 HR, 10 RBI, and a .522 slugging percentage. Last year Delmon was a huge factor in the Twins success, and from what I've heard he has strengthened his upper body giving him more power. So if he can get the ball up in the air in Toronto look for him to hit a couple of home runs and help the Twins get a opening series victory.

Jays Player to Watch: Edwin Encarnacion. Last year, the Jays had great success against the Twins. A big reason for that was Encarnacion. In 2010 alone, he hit .483, with 7 HR, and 14 RBI with a 1.758 OPS. To compare how ridiculous that last number was, Encarnacion's season OPS was .787. So as you can see, he loved playing the Twins. Also in his career, Encarnacion has hit .389 against the Twins. So if he can continue his success against the Twins, it could be a long series for the visiting team.


One last thing before you leave. Please sit back and enjoy Opening Day. This day is like a holiday. Just appreciate the fact baseball, and mainly the Twins, are back. There are 161 other games we can over analyze. Just leave this one alone.

Spring Training Notes-3/27

• Yesterday, the Twins finalized their opening day roster by sending Jim Hoey, Anthony Slama, and Luke Hughes down to AAA to start the season. The moves mean Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship, and Matt Tolbert will begin the season with the big club. I don't mind the bullpen moves, but I was hoping to see Luke Hughes start the season with the big club. But Hughes did not have a good final two weeks, giving Tolbert the job. Tolbert will be used as a pinch runner late in games and will give the occasional day off to an infielder.
  
• Saturday night the Twins staged a six run ninth inning to come from behind and defeat the Red Sox 9-8 and win the Mayor's Cup. I can't confirm this but I believe the last time the Twins won the Mayor's Cup is 2006 (No one really cares about a Spring Training award, so records are hard to find). Chase Lambin hit a bases clearing triple off of new Red Sox Bobby Jenks to give the Twins the lead. It's kind of nice to see the Twins beat up on the Red Sox, even if its just exhibition.
  
• With today's start from Carl Pavano, it would appear that the starting rotation will be Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Nick Blackburn, Scott Baker, and Brian Duensing to open the season. The Twins open the season in Toronto on April 1 for three games then travel to New York to play the Yankees for four games. The starters will definitely be tested on the opening road trip.
  
• Sunday, Ron Gardenhire said that he believes that Justin Morneau would open the season with the team and not on the disabled list. At some point in the next day or two, Morneau is expected to meet with his doctors and get clearance to play full time again. Morneau has apparently been feeling great and has had no setbacks with his concussion since he resumed playing games this spring. Fingers crossed folks!
• Monday marks the final Spring game in Florida for the Twins as they play the Pirates. Tuesday, they fly to Atlanta for two games against the Braves at Turner Field before having a off day Thursday and the opener Friday. Good thing they didn't have the two exhibition games at Target Field before the season, like they did in 2010. Snow, would of been kind of in the way. It would of been interesting to see how the Twins would of handled that.
• This marks my final Spring Notes blog of 2011. Kind of hard to believe the Spring is almost over. But the incredibly great news is that the regular season is right around the corner! It will be nice to watch games on TV and get out to the ballpark once again.
  

Spring Training Notes-3/8

• What came as a surprise to most, Justin Morneau suited up for the Twins 'B' Game today vs Pittsburgh. Just last week Morneau had not been cleared for game activity, but it seemed that it came to the point where the only move left was to play and see how it goes. Morneau played first and hit cleanup. He had two at bats, going 1-2, with a bases clearing double in the third and eventually scored a run. After the game he said he felt fine, and hopefully it feels fine in a few hours. This was great news for Twins Territory. But lets be real, he is not past this yet. He could have some lingering symptoms tonight and tomorrow which would signal a stop sign on his recovery. But if all goes well, he could be seen in a game on Thursday at the earliest. I will keep my fingers crossed for the next two days.
  
• Also in the 'B' game, Delmon Young made his Spring debut getting a pair of walks before leaving the game. Young had missed time this spring with turf toe injury. But it appears he should also have this behind him and should be good to go for the remainder of spring. Young, to me, is crucial to the success of the 2011 Twins since they front office failed to acquire a right handed bat with some pop this past offseason. Last year Young batted .298 with 21 HR and 112 RBI (All career highs).
  
• In the past week manager Ron Gardenhire noted that Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn will begin the season in the starting rotation. They join Francisco Liriano and Carl Pavano with assured spots in the starting 5. The announcment leaves Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey battling for the final starters spot. Personally, I would rather see it go to Slowey, but my gut feeling says it will be Baker. Slowey is under team control for 2011-2013 and is arbitration eligible following the 2011 and 2012 seasons. Meanwhile Scott Baker is owed $5M and $6.5M over the next two seasons and has a $9.25M team option for 2013. Slowey's contractual status makes him a much easier move. And as Joe Christiensen tweeted today, many scouts were there to watch Slowey. So it will be interesting to see how this plays out.
• Some players who have impressed me so far this spring is Danny Valencia, Ben Revere, and Luke Hughes. Hughes is a player who I would rather see make the opening day roster over Matt Tolbert (I'll have a post on this later on this week). Despite what everyone says about Valencia having a down year compared to a year ago, I have a gut feeling that he will have another good year at the hot corner. And Ben Revere probably won't make the opening day roster, but an injury to one of the outfielders could open the door for him as he looks to squeeze his way on to the MLB roster.
• And for those who don't know, today was the release of MLB 11: The Show for Playstation. Joe Mauer once again graced the cover for the second year in a row. Here is a trailer for the game.
  
  
  

Pavano Returns; Surplus of Starters

Yesterday, the Twins re-signed RHP Carl Pavano to a 2 year deal worth $16.5 million. The deal also includes incentives worth up to $500,000, based on innings pitched. Pavano had originally looked for a three year deal at the beginning of the free agent period, but no one seemingly wanted to go that high. The Twins were always the front runner and finally, after much speculation, signed Pavano. Pavano was a horse in 2010 for the Twins going 17-11 with a 3.75 ERA, while pitching in a team high 221 innings.

Now that Pavano has returned, the Twins starting rotation now consists of Francisco Liriano, Pavano, Scott Baker, Brian Duensing, Kevin Slowey, and Nick Blackburn. And for those counting, that is six starters when a typical rotation consists of five. So now the Twins have a surplus of starters and they still have a few holes in their roster. The solution I would like to offer is simple: Trade one. But the question is, which one do you part with?

Given how well Liriano pitched last year, he will stay. Brian Duensing was pretty valuable after he went into the rotation, so he will stay too. And Nick Blackburn was locked into a long term deal last offseason, so I wouldn't think anyone would want to take on his contract. So that leaves Baker and Slowey as the two viable trade candidates.

There are a few turnoffs when looking at trading for Scott Baker. Only once in his four big league seasons has he turned in a sub 4 ERA. He has been very inconsistent during his time in the big leagues. Although each of the past three seasons he has pitched at least 170 innings. So he can be a valuable innings eater. But the big turnoff is his remaining contract for 2011 through 2013. His salary will be $5 million in 2011, $6.5 million in 2012, and 2013 there is a $9.25 million team option. So clearly if trying to trade Scott Baker, the team needs to have payroll flexibility. And by this point in the offseason, many teams have spent their money already. So the options are limited for trading Baker.

Kevin Slowey doesn't have Scott Baker's big contract. So there is a big plus for trying to trade him. Slowey was one of three Twins to file arbitration numbers on Tuesday. So he will make somewhere between $2-$3 million in 2011. Slowey is known as a control artist. So when he is on, he can really paint the corners. But in 2009, he had wrist surgery on his pitching hand. So in 2010 we saw him try and come back from that. He too was like Baker, very inconsistent. But that can be blamed on the wrist injury. He has played three full big league seasons and he has yet to go beyond 160 innings in a season. But again, that is due to the wrist. But because of his lower salary, the Twins should have better options moving him.

So despite the wrist injury, Slowey is the more valuable pitcher to trade here. I'd rather trade Baker and give Slowey the shot. But Baker's contract really handcuffs the options of where he could go. Some people could say that we should hold on to the six starters and just have one start at AAA and go from there. But with Kyle Gibson making his rapid ascent to AAA last year, I would like to see him get a call up in 2011 if needed. The Twins really need bullpen help. That's why they need to trade one of these starters, so they can at least get one solid reliever in return. Maybe acquire a middle infielder prospect too since the depth there took a hit this offseason. So hopefully the right move can be made with this surplus of starters. Because the Twins really need a move here...

2010 Winter Meeting Thoughts

This week, all 30 GMs are down in Orlando for the Winter Meetings. And if you are like me, this is great to watch closely. All the rumors is what make this week great. But in recent years, the meetings have become more a place where teams lay groundwork on deals, then over the course of time complete them. The Twins have a lot of roster questions right now. So I was hoping for some significant move to help fill some holes, but that does not appear likely. Another thing that does not appear likely is GM Bill Smith commenting on a potential deal. I could probably get more useful info from the housekeeping lady than him. But there have been some interesting rumors surrounding the Twins so I will offer my thoughts here:

• The market for free agent relievers Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier are heating up. And as Bill Smith has said this week the Twins will not go into a bidding war for them. I have gotten the impression Smith is content with going into the season with a bullpen consisting of Glen Perkins, Anthony Slama, Pat Neshek, Jose Mijares, Joe Nathan, and Matt Capps. That is nothing to be content about. Perkins has a Joe Mays ERA since 2009. Neshek has to recover arm strength following his Tommy John surgery because his fastball had issures topping 85. Slama has had a stellar minor league career but control has been a problem for him. Mijares is a solid lefty specialist but no eighth inning setup guy. Nathan is coming off Tommy John surgery and should not be expected to put up his pre-2010 numbers. And Capps is not a 1-2-3 closer, but can dilligently get the job done. I hope Bill Smith can sign at least two solid relievers to bridge the gap to the ninth.
  
• Much has not happened in the negotiations for Japanese infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka, since the Twins won the rights to sign him. But after watching Oakland lose the pitcher Iwakuma because they failed to sign him by the deadline has me a bit concerned. I would like to see the Twins hammer out a deal out after the Winter Meetings end, so we don't take this to the wire. The Twins have until 11 P.M. on December 26 to get a deal done. Nishioka is reportedly wanting a 3 year deal in the area of $3 million per year.
  
• With the Nishioka signing, SS J.J. Hardy has become expendable. The Twins are looking at having Alexi Casilla start next year, to help add speed up the middle. Casilla had a good 2010 season as a bench player, and when given the opportunity to start in previous seasons has struggled. So I would hate to lose a solid player like Hardy to see Casilla fail again. People are quick to point out Hardy missed lots of time in 2009 and 2010 with injuries. But if you look at his seasons before that he was a pretty healthy player. The Twins are reportedly in discussions with Baltimore about Hardy and in return the Twins would land some minor league pitchers. With the thin SS market this offseason, we can get a better return for Hardy than minor league pitchers. Try a Hardy for a solid relief pitcher deal.
• SP Carl Pavano was in Orlando and met with the Twins and other interested teams. The Twins want Pavano back and from what I've heard, Pavano would like to return. But he is considered the second best pitcher on the market and is seeking a three year deal. I hope if the Twins do retain the 34 year old starter, they get a two year deal. Three years is overkill for a player of his age and his injury history. If a third year is a must, try a club option on the third year, first. The Twins (From what Bill Smith has reluctantly told us) are optimistic they can work something out. But Smith has also said they are content with having Francisco Liriano, Brian Duensing, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Kevin Slowey as their opening day rotation. Yikes!
  

Tonight is a Very Telling Start

Last night, we all watched the Twins get pounded into the ground by Toronto 13-2. Twins pitchers allowed 6 home runs in the process. 3 of those home runs, were allowed by Francisco Liriano, who had only allowed 6 before that start. And to add to the misery of that beating, it happened at Target Field, a place where opposing teams suffer a beating. I'm not pushing the panic button...yet. And tonight the Twins send Carl Pavano to the mound, and his start might just tell us how ready this team is for the postseason.

You may remember the Twins starters went through a similar phase to what they are going through now back in June. Four out of the five starters struggled to make it out of the 4th inning. The one who didn't was Carl Pavano. In his five June starts he went 4-1 and pitched no fewer than 7 innings in any of those starts. At one point he threw back to back complete games. He carried the starting staff, and saved the bullpen arms. He has by far been the most consistent pitcher for the Twins this season. And tonight, they need that calming veteran presence on the mound once more to give everyone, including the bullpen, a sigh of relief for a night. I'm not saying he needs to throw a complete game shutout. He needs a 7 inning, 2-3 runs allowed, keep the team in the game performance. You may remember last year Pavano pitched one of the best games in the postseason. 7 innings, 2 earned runs. But he took the loss as his counter part Andy Pettite was simply better. I would love nothing more than for that Carl Pavano to appear once again and keep the Twins in the game.

As before said, the Twins haven't played in close games lately. But to be fair most of them have been without the A-lineup on the field. But, none the less, you would want them to play in tighter games to better prepare for next week. Because honestly, I don't want a team that will get discouraged once they are trailing in a game in the postseason. That does not bode well whether you are facing the Yankees or Rays. Some might argue that these last 7 games have meant absolutely nothing. I give you that for the road trip, but these final four home games, you need your A-game. And what better way for the pitching staff to tune up for the postseason, then to face the most powerful team in baseball. But last night, they did not fare well at all. And that's why Carl Pavano will once again save the staff and the Twins. Because if he doesn't, the panic button gets harder and harder not to push.

Twins Post-Bullpen Overworked?

This season we have seen the Twins starting rotation (minus Carl Pavano and Francisco Liriano) go through some issues, specifically since june 1st. Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, and Nick Blackburn have been an abomination, and the Twins 6 game lead in the central evaporated and now they sit swapping between second and third. And I would like to raise the question, is our bullpen becoming overworked? My belief...Yes, they are. The lack of innings being thrown by the starters have caught up with them. Of the 95 games played by the Minnesota Twins this year, the starters have pitched through at least 6 innings in 62 of those. But since June 1st, the starters have pitched through the 6th just 28 out of 44 times. If you take away Pavano and Liriano since June 1st, starters have gotten 6 innings in just 13 out of 27 times. To compare, since June 1st, the New York Yankees starting 5 have pitched through 6 31 out of 41 times. And if you don't think these numbers are affecting the bullpen i tend to disagree. Since July 1st Matt Guerrier (1.93 ERA to 2.74), Jose Mijares (2.12 to 3.20), Alex Burnett (3.12 to 4.39), and Jon Rauch (2.61 to 3.31) have all seen their ERA's rise, and in the case of Burnett, it lead to his demotion. The only person out in the bullpen who seems to be thriving right now is Jesse Crain who's ERA has fallen down to 3.52 and has become Ron Gardenhire's most trusted reliever. The 'pen hasn't been so bad to where we need to push the panic button, but if the lack of innings being pitched continue, the Twins could find problems from the bullpen on top of the starters being inconsistent. The Twins did just call up Anthony Slama and they have Kyle Waldrop waiting for his shot, but Rochester's bullpen has been worked almost twice as much as the Twins 'pen has. So if anything these guys could be even better and not have their arms fall off. But fatigue could set in with them anytime now as well. Here is another sign that the front office needs to go after some arms that can pitch deeper into games. If not, third place looks great for the Twins.